Sunday, August 21, 2011

2011 Draft Recap: Introducing the Fantasy Draft Rating (FDR) Statistic



With the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft in the books, it's only appropriate I turn my attention to the recap and my annual award of "Best Draft." This year, I decided to be extra ambitious and create a statistic in order to determine the best drafter. Remember those rankings I made consisting of the top 30 in each position. Well I took those lists and put them to use and came up with FDR or the Fantasy Draft Rating.

Here's how the equation breaks down:

[[(2.0)(RBs + WRs + QBs) + (1.5)(Best TE) + (0.5) (Best D/ST + Best K)]/400] * 100 = FDR

For you mathematical minds, here's why I did what I did:
- Players were scored according to my rankings (e.g. #1 player receiving 30 points, #2 player receiving 29 points ... and #30 player receiving 1 point) Any players not ranked in my top 30 were given one point.
- Position players received a 2.0 multiplier because they are the most important. Tight-ends are slightly less important receiving the 1.5 multiplier. And the least important positions of defense and kickers received the 0.5 multiplier.
- I chose best TE because there shouldn't be a preference towards a team who drafts multiple tight-ends. Same goes for D/ST and K. This rule doesn't apply for positional players because they are all considered important in regards to substitutions.
- 400 was set as a perfect fantasy draft rating because it's a number that would be very hard to get to in a standard 14 team league.

**** This rating is very bias, but you should know that since I'm the one choosing who had the best draft. Even if you don't agree with my rankings, I think the FDR statistic accurately predicts what kind of fantasy player you are. The higher the FDR, the more "safe" the player and the lower the FDR, the more "risky" the player. Fantasy football is all about odds, thus I think these top teams have the best chance at winning without waiver wire, injuries and plain luck factoring in.

1.) The Rippin and the Tearin (Rory Linton) (FDR = 77.8)
Rory emerged as the heavy favorite after applying my new statistic. It shouldn't come to much of a surprise to me because I really liked WR Roddy White and WR Calvin Johnson who are both elite at their position. Throw in TE Antonio Gates and you have quite arguably the best trio of pass-catchers that any fantasy team will see in our league. His RB position is slightly inflated with Ryan Mathews who has yet to show he's worth starting in fantasy, but Beanie Wells was a great pick-up (due to Ryan Williams out for the year). If I was a betting man, Rory will have a deep run in the playoffs this year. Congrats on the 2011 "Best Draft" Award!

2.) Wizard Killer (Joe Selbo) (FDR = 73.8)
Who says auto-picking will mess up your team? Besides the RB Ryan Williams hiccup, the computer gave Joe a great team while minimizing the risk. Balance is the theme of this team because it has value dripping from it's starting line-up. RBs MJD and Frank Gore are capable having elite years while WRs Wes Welker, Dez Bryant and Jeremy Maclin are all legitimate options in the passing game. The bench is kind of bare, but his starting line-up is hard to argue against.

3.) Team Grande (Anthony Grande) (FDR = 73.1)
RB Chris Johnson slipping to the five spot helped Anthony put together a top-five draft in my opinion. RB Peyton Hillis and QB Joe Flacco are players with tremendous upside in regard to their rankings. WRs DeSean Jackson and Brandon Lloyd look to have big years. Throw in TE Dallas Clark and I think Team Grande has a successful sophomore season.

4.) Team Merrill (Seth Merrill) (FDR = 72.1)
Drafting RB Jamaal Charles at the three spot did not make me happy, seeing that I based my decision on the fourth pick around Charles. Nonetheless, Seth received a dynamic player at the position. WR Hakeem Nicks was a steal late in the second round because of his sheer size and ability. I also feel RB Ahmad Bradshaw and TE Jason Witten will be used a lot this season. Another good thing about Seth's team is the apparent depth. From top to bottom, I wouldn't be scared to start anyone on his team.

5.) Arthur's Arsenal (Robert Trader/John Rymaszewski) (FDR = 71.8)
There's things I love and hate about this team. WRs Andre Johnson and Mike Wallace are sensational as I see no reason either guy doesn't finish in the top 10 at their position. On the flip side, the RB situation is seriously hurting with RBs Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart. While I don't necessarily hate any of those players, none of them have breakout potential in my opinion. I love Philip Rivers at QB because he has the potential to be one of the best in fantasy. However, TE Brandon Pettigrew has a propensity to drop passes which could become a problem as well.

6.) Team Lowenberg (Nick Lowenberg) (FDR = 71.5)
Lowenberg always drafts well, so going with #1 ranked RB Adrian Peterson should have been expected. After that, I would have to say Nick has put together one of the deepest teams in the league. I love QB Tony Romo to have a great come-back year and RB DeAngelo Williams is too talented to not see the ball. WR Chad Ochocinco is oozing with sleeper potential and WR Reggie Wayne rarely disappoints in Indy. The bench is not as good as Team Merrill's, but not too far behind.

7.) Team Klitzman (Kari Klitzman) (FDR = 68.5)
Overall, I would say going with RB Arian Foster at #2 was the right move. I'm not personally high on WR Miles Austin,  but being paired with WR Dwayne Bowe makes for a scary duo. QB Josh Freeman makes plays in the air and on the ground while it's finally time for RB Felix Jones to step up in Big D. There's some slight risk in this team, but Kari can only hope she received a little more luck than last year (she scored the second most points, but missed out on the playoffs).

8.) Team Szmanda (Jason Smanda) (FDR = 66.9)
Last year's runner-up didn't get Aaron Rodgers this season, but he did land RB LeSean McCoy and WR Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald projects to have a monster year as new QB Kevin Kolb settles in. I also like QB Big Ben because he's always underrated, but after that, there's a lot of risk associated with this team. WR Austin Collie attempts to shake off concussion worries and WR Brandon Marshall has his own mental issues.

9.) Team Lee (Isaac Lee) (FDR = 66.8)
QB Matt Schaub, WRs Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin are great additions, but I'm not so sure about RB Rashard Mendenhall or WR Sidney Rice. While a lot of people like Mendenhall and Rice, I think they were both products of great situations in the NFL. Rice has now left Minnesota for a bad Seattle team and Mendenhall has shown to be a sort of head-case. I like Team Lee's depth, but I'm concerned with his front-line. I will say that RB LeGarrette Blount has the potential to save his team though.

10.) Team Grays (Nick Grays) (FDR = 65.0)
How I don't score well in my own statistic should make you a believer right away. I'll admit that I took a lot of risk in my draft and it shows in my FDR. I couldn't have Jamaal Charles, but QB Aaron Rodgers should be a serviceable replacement. The way RB Steven Jackson has been used over the last five years makes him a risk, but I love his work ethic and how there's no one else in St. Louis chopping at his job. WRs Steve Johnson and Kenny Britt are the definition of risky, but could produce big points for me if they play to their potential. I'm also banking on RB Ryan Grant returning to form in 2011.

11.) Team McCarthy (Matt McCarthy) (FDR = 64.3)
In my opinion, the Champ had a top-heavy draft. QB Tom Brady and RB Michael Turner are unquestionably good, but RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Marques Colston always seem to under-perform in regards to their fantasy outlooks. Add in the fact that RB Joseph Addai and WR Plaxico Burress are big question marks and you have some risk. The good thing for Matt is that risk can turn into high rewards in the game of fantasy.

12.) Free Victory (Tim Harwood) (FDR = 60.4)
This auto-picking didn't go as well as Joe's, but there are some positives and negatives to the team. RB Matt Forte in the first round was a bit of a reach, but QB Drew Brees in the second was a perfect spot for the #2 ranked signal-caller. WRs Percy Harvin and Mario Manningham could be OK at the position, but they also could be busts, especially considering the states of their professional teams. This team does have above average depth, but a concern is that it's most likely the depth that will need to be used this season.

13.) Team Dogfighters (Chad Breiby) (FDR = 56.6)
I was actually surprised Chad's team scored this low in FDR, but considering the first round pick spent on QB Michael Vick, it makes sense. Teams have had an extended off-season to prepare for Vick and I think it will show in fantasy this season. I love RB Darren McFadden,  but whether WR Vincent Jackson will return to '09 form is not known. The starting line-up is filled with average players after the above mentioned, but Chad does have some deep sleeper candidates on his bench.

14.) Team Szombatfalvy (Mike Szombatfalvy) (FDR = 55.8)
Mike rounds out my discussion of FDR, even though he made a great choice with RB Ray Rice. QB Peyton Manning and TE Jermichael Finley are also apparent positives, but WR Santonio Holmes appears to be the only relevant option at WR on this squad. Hines Ward is only getting older and I wouldn't trust Bernard Berrian or Nate Washington. I would also bump Mike's FDR up if Mike Tolbert can overcome Ryan Mathews because that looks to be the case during the preseason. Otherwise, I think Mike will really struggle with his bench. However, nothing a few waiver-wire moves can't fix.

What did you think of my new FDR statistic? Did you think Rory had the "Best Draft" as well? Let me know by commenting below!

2 comments:

  1. It's true, I am pretty awesome.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Haha, nice Rory. You are a master of FDR!

    ReplyDelete